纽约时报:欢迎来到“流行病”时代

2020-2-29 单立人 假装在学习

纽约时报的这篇文章,观点比较独特。在世界各国都在为新冠肺炎病毒焦头烂额的时候,很少有人会想:下一次是什么时候?毕竟,这一次都还没完。但下一次的到来是必然的,随着人类对自然的开发,会有更多以前未知的疾病出现。问题是,人类该怎样做好应对的准备? 


Peter Daszak是一位疾病生态学家,也是位于纽约的生态健康联盟(EcoHealth Alliance)的主席。


 2018年初,在世界卫生组织于日内瓦的一次会议上,我所在的专家组R&D Blueprint创造了“疾病X”这个词,它指的是下一次大范围流行病,届时会由一种未知、新奇、人类从未接触过的病原体引发。今天,世界正站在大范围流行病的悬崖边缘,我们有必要花点时间来考虑一下,Covid-19是否就是我们小组所警告的那种疾病。 我们当时说过,疾病X很可能来自一种源于动物的病毒,并将出现在地球上某个经济发展驱使人和野生动物紧密结合的地方。疾病X在暴发初期可能与其他疾病混淆,并迅速无声地传播;利用人类的旅行和贸易网络,它将到达多个国家并挫败遏制措施。疾病X的死亡率高于季节性流感,但传播起来和流感一样容易。甚至在大流行之前就能撼动金融市场。 


简而言之,Covid-19就是疾病X。


 尽管有迹象表明,疫情在中国的传播速度可能正在放缓,但多个社区和国家目前报告出现持续传播。最近几天,韩国确诊病例数量激增。在意大利,村庄和城镇被封锁,米兰时装周受到干扰,节日也被取消,与此同时,公共卫生部门正在搜寻“零号病人”,以确定还有谁可能被感染,并可能在欧洲传播这种疾病。伊朗似乎已成为新的传播中心。随着人们试图逃避检疫,散布不实信息,阴谋论者在开放的民主国家开展活动,迫在眉睫的大流行将以新的方式挑战我们。


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这篇报道的英文: 


In early 2018, during a meeting at the World Health Organization in Geneva, a group of experts I belong to (the R&D Blueprint) coined the term “Disease X”: We were referring to the next pandemic, which would be caused by an unknown, novel pathogen that hadn’t yet entered the human population. 


As the world stands today on the edge of the pandemic precipice, it’s worth taking a moment to consider whether Covid-19 is the disease our group was warning about. Disease X, we said back then, would likely result from a virus originating in animals and would emerge somewhere on the planet where economic development drives people and wildlife together.


 Disease X would probably be confused with other diseases early in the outbreak and would spread quickly and silently; exploiting networks of human travel and trade, it would reach multiple countries and thwart containment. 


Disease X would have a mortality rate higher than a seasonal flu but would spread as easily as the flu. It would shake financial markets even before it achieved pandemic status. In a nutshell, Covid-19 is Disease X.


 Even as there are signs that the epidemic’s spread might be slowing in China, multiple communities and countries have now reported sustained transmission in their midst. The number of confirmed cases has exploded in South Korea in recent days. In Italy, villages and towns are on lockdown, Fashion Week in Milan has been disrupted and festivals are being canceled while public health authorities search for patient zero to identify who else is likely infected and may spread the disease in Europe. Iran appears to have become a new hub of transmission. 


The looming pandemic will challenge us in new ways, as people try to evade quarantines, and misinformation campaigns and conspiracy theorists ply their trade in open democracies. 


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详细的内容可移步纽约时报阅读。

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